The Seattle Mariners entered the 2026 season with expectations of building on last year’s impressive postseason run. Instead, the club has found itself fighting to remain relevant in the American League playoff race, with one of its biggest offseason decisions now receiving significant criticism.
Josh Naylor, who signed a five-year, $92.5 million contract with Seattle during the offseason, has struggled to provide the offensive production the Mariners were expecting from their first baseman. With the team’s postseason hopes fading, questions are beginning to emerge about whether committing so much money to Naylor was the right decision.
Seattle currently sits at 67-78 and trails the Cleveland Guardians by 6.5 games in the American League Wild Card race. With the regular season rapidly approaching its conclusion, the Mariners have little room for error if they hope to make another postseason appearance.
That situation represents a major contrast from where the franchise stood a year ago.
Seattle hoped to build on 2025 success
The Mariners came remarkably close to reaching the World Series last season. Seattle advanced all the way to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series before ultimately losing to the Toronto Blue Jays.
That postseason run created plenty of optimism heading into 2026. Rather than making sweeping changes, Seattle appeared determined to keep the core of its roster intact while adding pieces capable of pushing the team over the top.
One of the most important decisions was bringing Naylor back.
The former All-Star had joined Seattle and provided an offensive spark in 2025, giving the organization confidence that he could become an important part of its lineup for years to come. The Mariners responded by signing him to a five-year contract worth $92.5 million.
At the time, the move appeared to make considerable sense.
Seattle acted quickly, securing Naylor before the free-agent market had fully developed. The organization seemingly wanted to make sure that one of its key offensive contributors from the previous season would not have the opportunity to leave.
However, the results in 2026 have been far less impressive.
Naylor’s production has dropped significantly
Through 135 games this season, Naylor has posted a .267 batting average, a .325 on-base percentage and a .362 slugging percentage. He has also recorded 10 home runs and 49 RBIs.
Those numbers are not what Seattle envisioned when it handed him a long-term deal.
Naylor has demonstrated throughout his career that he is capable of producing much more offensively. His best season with the Cleveland Guardians came just two years ago, when he hit 31 home runs and drove in 108 runs.
That level of production helped establish Naylor as one of the more dangerous offensive players at his position.
Seattle was therefore hoping that his arrival would add another dependable power source to an already talented roster.
Instead, the Mariners have received significantly less production.
The difference is particularly noticeable when Naylor’s current numbers are compared with his previous offensive peak. Going from 31 home runs and 108 RBIs to just 10 homers and 49 RBIs in 2026 represents a substantial decline.
For a team attempting to compete deep into October, that type of drop-off can have serious consequences.
Was the contract an offseason mistake?
FanSided’s Zachary Rotman recently identified the Naylor extension as one of the offseason decisions that may have hurt Seattle’s chances of returning to the postseason.
Rotman pointed out that the Mariners were unusually quick to commit to Naylor after his strong contribution in 2025. The organization did not wait for the free-agent market to develop before deciding to secure him.
That urgency made sense from one perspective. Seattle had just experienced a deep playoff run and wanted to preserve the momentum surrounding the team.
But committing five years and $92.5 million also created considerable expectations.
When a player receives a contract of that size, the organization expects him to become a consistent contributor rather than simply reproduce an occasional stretch of strong performances.
Naylor has not delivered that level of impact so far this season.
Of course, labeling the contract a mistake after only one disappointing season would be premature. The deal covers five years, and Naylor has plenty of time to turn things around.
Baseball is also a long season, and offensive production can fluctuate significantly from one year to another.
Still, Seattle cannot ignore the warning signs.
Mariners need more from their offense
The biggest issue for the Mariners is not necessarily Naylor alone. The team has struggled to match the overall quality it displayed during its 2025 postseason push.
Seattle has not received the same level of firepower on offense, while its overall performance has also failed to meet expectations.
That makes every underperforming player more important.
When a team is fighting for a playoff position, production from established players becomes especially valuable. Seattle cannot afford to have a highly paid veteran occupying a major role in the lineup without receiving consistent results.
Naylor’s struggles have therefore become magnified by the Mariners’ broader problems.
His .267 average suggests that he is still making contact and contributing in certain areas, but the lack of power has been difficult to overlook. A .362 slugging percentage and only 10 home runs after 135 games are well below the kind of numbers expected from a player Seattle viewed as a major offensive piece.
The Mariners need that power if they are going to make another serious postseason push.
Time is running out
Seattle’s current position makes the situation even more urgent.
At 67-78, the Mariners have put themselves in a difficult position. Being 6.5 games behind the Guardians in the Wild Card standings means the club needs a significant turnaround over the remaining games.
There is little time left for individual players to find their rhythm.
For Naylor, that means the final stretch of the season could be particularly important. A strong finish would not erase the concerns surrounding his 2026 campaign, but it could provide Seattle with some optimism heading into the offseason.
If his struggles continue, however, questions about the long-term contract will become even louder.
The Mariners did not sign Naylor merely to be an average contributor. They invested heavily because they believed he could help transform their offense and keep them among the American League contenders.
So far, that investment has not produced the desired return.
The bigger picture for Seattle
It is important to remember that Naylor’s contract cannot be judged entirely on his 2026 statistics.
A five-year agreement is designed to provide value over multiple seasons. Naylor could potentially rebound next year, rediscover his power stroke and ultimately justify Seattle’s decision.
But the Mariners’ immediate problem is different.
They entered this season hoping to build on an ALCS appearance. Instead, they have found themselves below .500 and facing increasingly difficult playoff odds.
That makes the timing of Naylor’s struggles particularly unfortunate.
Seattle’s front office will now have to evaluate the entire roster and determine whether the current group can realistically compete at the highest level. Naylor will undoubtedly be part of that conversation.
For now, the $92.5 million commitment looks uncomfortable because the production has not matched the investment.
Still, the final judgment will not come after one season. The Mariners will have four more years of the contract to determine whether their early confidence in Naylor was justified.
For a team whose championship window appeared to be opening, however, 2026 has provided a frustrating reminder that offseason decisions can look very different once the games begin.
The Mariners now need answers quickly. If they cannot reverse their fortunes, the decision to commit $92.5 million to Naylor will remain one of the most closely scrutinized moves of their disappointing season.
