The New York Mets could have an interesting strategy in their pursuit of Tarik Skubal.
If the Detroit Tigers ace reaches free agency, there is little doubt that he will attract attention from virtually every team searching for frontline starting pitching. Skubal has developed into one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball, making him precisely the type of player the Mets could target as they look to strengthen their rotation.
However, New York may not necessarily need to win the bidding by offering Skubal the longest contract.
Instead, the Mets could take a page from their recent approach to signing Bo Bichette and build an aggressive offer around shorter-term security, enormous annual value and flexibility.
The Bo Bichette Blueprint
The Mets showed last offseason that they were willing to take an unconventional approach when pursuing elite talent.
Rather than simply handing out an enormous long-term contract, New York signed Bo Bichette to a three-year, $126 million deal. The contract gave the infielder substantial financial security while also allowing him to maintain a relatively short path back to free agency.
That structure was important because it demonstrated that the Mets could compete for star players without necessarily committing to a decade-long agreement.
The same philosophy could potentially be applied to Skubal.
Instead of offering a massive seven- or eight-year contract, New York could propose a shorter deal with an annual salary that ranks among the highest ever given to a starting pitcher.
That could make the Mets especially attractive if Skubal values flexibility and maximizing his earnings on a yearly basis.
Why Skubal Is Worth the Risk
Skubal is not simply another free-agent pitcher with an impressive résumé.
He has established himself as a legitimate ace.
His combination of velocity, command, strikeout ability and pitch mix has made him one of the most difficult starters in baseball to face. His recent dominance has also transformed him into the kind of pitcher teams build their rotations around.
For the Mets, acquiring that type of arm would immediately address one of their biggest needs.
New York has invested heavily in building a competitive roster, but an offense loaded with talent is not enough to guarantee postseason success. Contenders need dependable starting pitching, particularly when October arrives.
Skubal would give the Mets someone capable of taking the ball in a crucial game and potentially matching up with the best pitchers on other contenders.
That alone could make him worth an enormous investment.
A Shorter Contract Could Make Sense
The biggest concern surrounding a massive contract for any starting pitcher is the long-term risk.
Pitchers experience injuries at a higher rate than most position players, and even elite arms can experience significant declines as they move into their 30s.
That makes a decade-long commitment particularly dangerous.
The Mets could avoid some of that risk by offering Skubal a shorter contract.
For example, New York could explore something in the neighborhood of four years and $200 million, potentially including an opt-out after the second or third season.
Such an agreement would give Skubal an annual salary of approximately $50 million while preventing the Mets from carrying the contract for most of the next decade.
If Skubal continues performing like a Cy Young-caliber ace, he could then return to free agency and pursue another major contract.
From the Mets’ perspective, they would receive his services during a critical period without assuming as much long-term financial risk.
It could be a win-win arrangement.
Skubal’s Injury History Could Matter
There is another reason a shorter contract could become attractive.
Skubal has dealt with injury concerns during his career, including elbow issues that required procedures. While those concerns have not prevented him from becoming one of baseball’s best pitchers, they could influence how aggressively teams approach a long-term contract.
A team might be willing to pay Skubal an enormous annual salary while remaining hesitant to guarantee him hundreds of millions over eight or nine years.
That could create an opening for the Mets.
Instead of competing solely on total guaranteed money, New York could compete on yearly compensation.
If Skubal’s priority is earning as much as possible while maintaining control over his future, a shorter, high-value contract could be appealing.
The Mets Have the Financial Muscle
One advantage New York possesses is its financial flexibility.
Steve Cohen has never appeared afraid of spending when he believes a player can significantly improve the organization. The Mets have repeatedly been involved in major free-agent pursuits, and there is little reason to believe Skubal would be different.
But money alone may not be enough.
The Mets will have to present a compelling baseball case as well.
Skubal would be joining an organization with postseason ambitions and significant expectations. New York could sell him on the opportunity to become the unquestioned ace of a major-market franchise and pitch in some of the biggest games in baseball.
That combination of money, market and competitive opportunity could give the Mets a strong pitch.
New York Could Avoid Another Long-Term Trap
The potential Skubal strategy would also fit into a broader philosophy for the Mets.
Rather than continually taking on lengthy contracts that could become burdensome later, New York could focus on acquiring elite talent while maintaining future flexibility.
That is where the Bichette deal becomes particularly relevant.
The Mets demonstrated that they could give a star player an enormous annual salary while limiting the overall length of the commitment.
Doing something similar with Skubal could allow the organization to remain aggressive in future free-agent markets.
The Mets could potentially add Skubal, keep their rotation competitive and still preserve financial room for another major signing down the road.
But There Will Be Competition
The strategy would not guarantee the Mets a deal.
Skubal is likely to become one of the most coveted free agents available, and other contenders will have plenty of reasons to pursue him.
Teams with significant payroll flexibility could offer longer contracts. Others could have more immediate championship aspirations or a stronger recent track record.
Detroit could also make a serious attempt to retain its ace rather than allow him to walk away.
If the Tigers are willing to offer a massive extension, the Mets may have to make an even more aggressive proposal.
There is also the possibility that another team decides the risk of a long-term deal is worth taking and simply overwhelms the market.
That is why New York’s front office will have to determine exactly how much flexibility it is willing to sacrifice.
Could This Be the Mets’ Best Strategy?
The Mets do not necessarily have to win the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes by offering the most years.
They may be better served by offering the most attractive combination of money, flexibility and opportunity.
A shorter contract worth an enormous amount annually could give Skubal financial security while allowing him to return to free agency before the end of his prime.
For New York, the structure would provide access to an elite pitcher without the same level of long-term risk attached to a traditional mega-contract.
That makes the Bo Bichette approach worth watching.
The Mets have already shown that they can think outside the box when pursuing star players. If Skubal becomes available, they could once again challenge the conventional approach to free agency.
The question will be whether Skubal values annual salary and flexibility enough to accept a shorter contract.
If the answer is yes, the Mets could have a fascinating opportunity.
New York has the financial resources, the market and the need for an ace. Skubal has the talent to transform the rotation.
A creative contract structure could ultimately bring the two sides together.
And if the Mets successfully use the Bichette blueprint to land one of baseball’s premier starting pitchers, it could become one of the defining moves of their offseason.
