As free agency looms, Cincinnati must weigh reliability against cost and a crowded rotation.
With the World Series concluding and Major League Baseball’s free agency period set to open, the Cincinnati Reds front office is evaluating its roster, with a key decision pending on veteran pitcher Nick Martinez.
The 35-year-old right-hander is one of several Reds players set to hit the free agent market, presenting the organization with a complex calculation of value, role, and cost.
A Step Back in a Career Year for Innings
Martinez is coming off a 2025 season that was a tale of two statistics. On one hand, he provided durability, making a career-high 26 starts and appearing in 14 games out of the bullpen, logging 165.2 innings. This followed a career-best 2024 campaign where he posted a 3.10 ERA, which led the Reds to extend him a qualifying offer he ultimately accepted.
However, his performance metrics declined in 2025. His ERA rose to 4.45, and his underlying numbers showed concerning trends. His strikeout rate dropped significantly to 17.0%, ranking 108th among the 127 pitchers who threw 100 or more innings. His groundball rate also fell to 38.1%, placing him in the bottom third of the league. Furthermore, he allowed hits and home runs at a higher rate than the previous season.
“Not everyone was healthy during the season for the Reds in 2025 and Nick Martinez still got pushed out of the rotation,” the analysis noted, highlighting his transition to a hybrid role as the season progressed.
The Value of Versatility and Reliability
Despite the statistical regression, Martinez’s value lies in his flexibility and health. Since returning from a forearm strain in 2020, he has been a model of durability, pitching effectively as a starter, a long reliever, and a short-inning option over the past five seasons.
This “swingman” capability is a significant asset, allowing a team to navigate the inevitable injuries and performance slumps of a 162-game season without needing to make constant roster moves.
A Tricky Roster and Financial Fit
The Reds’ decision is complicated by their projected 2026 pitching staff. The potential starting rotation includes Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, and top prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns.
“This seems like a situation where the Reds probably could use Martinez moving forward, but also a situation where Martinez would likely get more money going somewhere else,” the analysis concluded.
Financially, Martinez is ineligible for another qualifying offer, which is set at $22,025,000 this year. After earning nearly that amount in 2025, a pay cut is expected. The central question for the Reds is whether they can justify a multi-year deal for a pitcher who may begin the season as a high-priced, multi-inning reliever and a depth starter.
Fan sentiment, as seen in comments on sports blogs like Redleg Nation, appears mixed but leans against a large investment. “For $20m? Absolutely not. For less than $10m? Maybe. He could be useful as a swingman in the bullpen,” commented one fan, echoing a common viewpoint.
The Road Ahead
Industry analysts suggest that if Martinez seeks a guaranteed starting role, he will likely find it with another organization willing to pay a premium. A return to Cincinnati would probably require a scenario where his market fails to develop, leading to a team-friendly contract signed later in the winter, potentially close to spring training.
The Reds are expected to explore all options, but the convergence of Martinez’s age, his 2025 performance, and the team’s emerging young pitching core makes his return uncertain. The front office’s handling of Martinez will be one of the first significant indicators of their strategy for the upcoming offseason.
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