The New York Mets could be facing a major decision when the 2026 MLB season comes to an end, with two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal emerging as one of the biggest names expected to enter free agency.
Skubal’s market is already generating significant attention, and one projection has placed his potential value at an eye-catching level: roughly $50 million per season. That kind of price tag would put the left-handed ace among the highest-paid pitchers in baseball and could force interested teams, including the Mets, to decide just how far they are willing to go to acquire an elite arm.
The situation has become even more intriguing because Skubal is now pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers after joining them during the 2026 season. His arrival in Los Angeles immediately raised questions about whether the Dodgers could make a serious attempt to retain him beyond this season.
For the Mets, however, the possibility of Skubal becoming available could be difficult to ignore.
Skubal’s Free-Agent Value Is Skyrocketing
Skubal entered the 2026 season with an extraordinary résumé. The left-hander had established himself as one of the most dominant starters in baseball, winning consecutive American League Cy Young Awards before becoming one of the game’s most valuable pitching assets.
He agreed to a one-year, $32 million contract for the 2026 season, setting the stage for what could become a historic free-agent payday.
Now, projections suggesting a contract approaching $50 million annually demonstrate just how dramatically his value has increased.
A reported projection has placed his potential deal at approximately $490 million, with an average annual value around $50 million.
That is obviously an enormous investment, but the reasoning is straightforward. Teams are not simply paying for a good starting pitcher. They would be paying for an established ace who has already demonstrated that he can perform at the highest level of the sport.
Dodgers Have Already Seen What He Can Do
Los Angeles has had a firsthand look at Skubal since acquiring him, and his early performances have only strengthened the argument that he belongs among baseball’s elite pitchers.
On September 8, Skubal’s arrival had already affected the Dodgers’ rotation, with Emmet Sheehan returning to the minors after losing his roster spot when the left-hander joined the rotation.
Skubal then delivered another impressive performance against Cincinnati on September 9.
He pitched 7⅓ innings, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out five and walking two. The performance helped Los Angeles defeat the Reds 3-2 and extend its winning streak to six games.
That outing illustrated exactly why his free-agent market could become so expensive.
An ace capable of consistently working deep into games provides much more than statistics. He can stabilize a rotation, reduce pressure on a bullpen and become the pitcher a contender trusts when the stakes are highest.
Where Do the Mets Fit Into the Picture?
For New York, the question is not whether Skubal would improve the rotation. He almost certainly would.
The bigger issue is whether the Mets should commit the kind of money required to land him.
New York has already demonstrated a willingness to spend aggressively on elite talent. The Mets entered 2026 with several major contracts on the books, including Juan Soto’s massive deal, while also adding Bo Bichette on a three-year, $126 million contract during the offseason.
That financial flexibility makes the Mets a team worth watching whenever a superstar reaches the open market.
But a potential $50 million annual salary is an entirely different conversation.
If Skubal actually commands something close to that figure, the Mets would have to consider the long-term implications. A massive pitching contract can be transformative when the player stays healthy and productive. It can also become a major financial burden if injuries or declining performance arrive later in the deal.
Why the Mets Could Still Pursue Him
Despite the price, there is a compelling argument for New York to make a serious push.
The Mets are trying to build a roster capable of competing deep into October, and elite starting pitching remains one of the most important ingredients for postseason success.
Skubal would immediately give the Mets a potential No. 1 starter.
More importantly, he would bring credibility to the top of the rotation. Instead of relying on several pitchers to collectively carry the starting staff, New York could have a proven ace capable of taking the ball every fifth day and setting the tone.
For a team with championship ambitions, that can be extremely valuable.
The Mets also have the financial resources to at least participate in a bidding war. Whether they would actually be willing to win that bidding war is another question.
The Dodgers Could Be the Biggest Obstacle
If the Mets decide to pursue Skubal, they may have to compete directly with Los Angeles.
The Dodgers have already shown that they are willing to spend aggressively to acquire superstar talent. Their current roster features several of baseball’s biggest contracts, and their ability to add Skubal during the season demonstrated how seriously they value elite pitching.
Skubal’s performance has also given Los Angeles a strong reason to consider keeping him.
After joining the Dodgers, he has had an opportunity to experience their organization, rotation and championship environment. If he enjoys his time in Los Angeles and the Dodgers are willing to meet his financial expectations, the club could have a significant advantage.
Scott Boras, Skubal’s agent, has also indicated that the pitcher’s Dodgers experience could potentially give Los Angeles an advantage when free agency arrives.
That does not mean a return to Los Angeles is guaranteed, but it makes the Mets’ potential pursuit even more complicated.
$50 Million a Year Changes Everything
A $50 million annual salary would place Skubal in rare company.
It would mean that whichever team signs him is essentially betting that he can remain one of baseball’s premier pitchers throughout the majority of a massive contract.
For the Mets, that calculation would be especially important.
New York could potentially decide that an elite left-handed ace is worth almost any price. Alternatively, the organization could determine that committing hundreds of millions of dollars to one pitcher creates too much risk.
That is why the final verdict on Skubal’s market will be fascinating to watch.
Mets Fans Have Plenty to Watch
At this stage, nothing guarantees that Skubal will sign with the Mets. There is also no certainty that his eventual contract will reach the reported $50 million-per-year territory.
What is clear is that his free agency could become one of the biggest stories of the MLB offseason.
The Dodgers have already experienced what Skubal can bring to a contender. Now, teams around baseball will be watching closely to see whether they can afford to bring the two-time Cy Young winner into their own rotation.
For the Mets, the opportunity could be too tempting to ignore.
If New York believes another elite starter is the missing piece between being a contender and becoming a championship favorite, Skubal could be exactly the kind of player worth making an enormous investment in.
But if the bidding reaches approximately $50 million per season, the Mets will have to decide whether an ace is worth that unprecedented level of commitment.
That decision could shape the franchise for years.
And with Skubal’s free agency approaching, Mets fans may soon discover just how serious the organization is about adding another superstar to an already expensive and ambitious roster.
