Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen continues to be one of the league’s most prolific passers, having thrown more touchdown passes than anyone else since 2022. Despite an MVP-winning season in 2024, Allen’s inability to build chemistry with tight end Dalton Kincaid has become a growing concern.
Kincaid, selected in the first round of the 2023 draft, was targeted 75 times last season but only 50 of those passes were deemed catchable. That placed him 23rd among tight ends in catchable targets, even though he ranked 15th in total targets. He accounted for 15.2% of the team’s target share, ranking 13th among tight ends in that category.
By comparison, Kansas City Chiefs star Travis Kelce saw 133 targets—23.3% of his team’s target share—and caught 103 catchable passes. Kelce’s catchable pass rate was 77.4%, while Kincaid’s was only 66.7%. The gap was even more noticeable on deeper routes. According to analyst Joe Marino of the Locked On Bills podcast, only 37% of Allen’s passes to Kincaid traveling 10 or more yards were considered catchable—the lowest rate among tight ends in the NFL.
While Marino acknowledged the chemistry issues were understandable given the complexity of the offense and the players’ roles, he emphasized that improvements are urgently needed. Kincaid is entering the third season of his four-year, $13.4 million rookie deal, and how he performs this year could determine his future with the team.
After the 2025 season, the Bills will have to decide whether to exercise the fifth-year option on Kincaid’s contract or let him enter 2026 in a contract year. That decision, which must be made by early May 2026, depends heavily on whether Allen and Kincaid can finally get on the same page this season.
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