With just three games remaining in the regular NRL season, the battle for a spot in the finals is reaching a fever pitch. Round 24 saw the playoff hopes of several teams dashed, and it appears that Queensland’s sides, the Dolphins and Brisbane Broncos, are also on the brink of missing out on the finals in 2024. This is especially disappointing for the Broncos, last year’s grand finalists, given the talent in their squad, including star fullback Reece Walsh, who may have played his last game of the season after fracturing his hand.
Meanwhile, Melbourne Storm made a significant step towards securing the NRL minor premiership with a crucial victory over Penrith in a top-of-the-table clash last week. The win gave Craig Bellamy’s team a four-point lead at the top of the standings. This cushion could allow the Storm to rest key players ahead of the finals series, potentially giving an advantage to teams like the Cowboys and Broncos, who are set to face Melbourne in the final two rounds.
Storm and Panthers wrap up top-two spots
In the final stretch of the NRL regular season, the Melbourne Storm are poised to secure the minor premiership if they can win two of their last three games against the Dolphins (home), Cowboys (away), and Broncos (away). Meanwhile, the Penrith Panthers, who are favorites in their upcoming matches against the Raiders, Rabbitohs, and Titans, seem likely to secure a top-two finish alongside the Storm, solidifying their positions ahead of the finals.
The race for a top-four spot, which provides the crucial double chance in the finals, is set to go down to the wire. The Roosters (34 points) and Sharks (34) are currently in strong contention, but the Bulldogs (32), Sea Eagles (31), and possibly even the Cowboys (30) are all still in the hunt to secure one of those coveted spots alongside the Storm and Panthers. The final rounds will be pivotal in determining which teams can capitalize and secure their place in the top four.
Roosters and Bulldogs favoured to finish in top four
The Sydney Roosters appear to have third place all but secured, with a favorable run-in featuring games against bottom-eight teams: Gold Coast (away), Canberra (home), and South Sydney (away). However, the battle for the crucial fourth spot—and a likely first-week finals matchup against the Storm—remains tight, with the Sharks, Bulldogs, and Sea Eagles all vying for it.
Cameron Ciraldo’s Bulldogs may have the edge in terms of a favorable draw, with upcoming matches against the Warriors (away), Sea Eagles (home), and Cowboys (home). They are likely to be considered favorites in all three games. The Sea Eagles, meanwhile, face a challenging run, starting with a home game against the Sharks, followed by crucial clashes against the Bulldogs and Cowboys. Manly would likely need to win all three to secure a top-four spot.
Given these scenarios, the race for fourth is set to be intensely competitive, with each match carrying significant implications for the finals.
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