Why the Red Sox Haven’t Promoted Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer Yet
The Boston Red Sox have held off on promoting top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer to the major leagues—not because they’re unready, but because of how the MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) can be strategically manipulated. The PPI was designed to reward teams for promoting top players early in the season, but it has inadvertently created an even stronger incentive for teams to delay promotions under certain conditions.
Under current MLB rules, a player needs 172 days on a major league roster in a season to count as one year of service time. Previously, teams would hold prospects back a few weeks to avoid triggering free agency a year early. The PPI now offers teams a bonus draft pick if a top-ranked rookie stays on the roster all year and finishes first or second in Rookie of the Year voting. However, if a different rookie on the same team wins that award instead, it can cost the team both the draft pick and long-term control of their other top prospects.
For the Red Sox, this means weighing the development of three young players: Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell. The organization appears to be betting on Campbell to win Rookie of the Year and deliver that extra draft pick. Campbell reportedly signed a team-friendly deal before the season, which may have fast-tracked his promotion. Anthony and Mayer, who haven’t signed long-term extensions, remain in Triple-A despite being MLB-ready, to preserve team control into 2031.
This strategy, however, is showing signs of backfiring. Campbell’s early-season performance was strong, but he’s struggled significantly in recent weeks, dropping in Rookie of the Year projections. Meanwhile, Anthony and Mayer are stuck in the minors, while the Red Sox major league roster suffers without their contributions. The team is in danger of sacrificing immediate wins for a gamble that may no longer pay off in the form of a draft pick—or extra years of control.
Now, the Red Sox face a difficult decision. Keeping Anthony and Mayer in Triple-A may harm the team’s chances of contending this season, while calling them up soon enough to make a difference could forfeit a valuable future season of their services. The team’s attempt to outsmart the system may have led them into a trap where both the present and the future are at risk, all because the incentive structure encourages maximizing business outcomes over fielding the best team.
