Despite a lackluster debate performance last week, President Joe Biden is just 2 percentage points behind former President Donald Trump in a recent poll of seven swing states.
Biden struggled during the first presidential debate against Trump in Atlanta last Thursday. The 81-year-old president, speaking in a hoarse voice, often mumbled through his administration’s accomplishments and goals, and at times, struggled to give coherent answers. His team later attributed his performance to a cold and jet lag.
According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 1 to 5, Trump leads Biden by only 2 percentage points (47% to 45%) across the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The poll surveyed 4,902 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Bloomberg News noted that the 2-point gap between Trump and Biden is the smallest since this type of polling began in October 2023.
Individually, Biden leads Trump by 5 percentage points in Michigan (48% to 43%) and by 3 points in Wisconsin (47% to 44%). Trump, on the other hand, leads Biden by 1 point in Georgia (47% to 46%), 3 points in Nevada (48% to 45%), 7 points in Pennsylvania (51% to 44%), 3 points in Arizona (48% to 45%), and 3 points in North Carolina (46% to 43%).
The number of registered voters polled in each state were as follows: 694 in Michigan, 695 in Wisconsin, 790 in Georgia, 452 in Nevada, 794 in Pennsylvania, 781 in Arizona, and 696 in North Carolina. The margins of error were plus or minus 3 percentage points for Georgia and Pennsylvania; plus or minus 4 percentage points for Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin; and plus or minus 5 percentage points for Nevada.
This poll was conducted shortly after last week’s debate, which led some prominent Democrats to call for Biden to drop out of the race. In the Bloomberg News poll, only 17 percent of respondents across the seven swing states thought Biden was mentally fit, considering his recent debate performance, while 49 percent thought Trump was. Despite being only three years younger than Biden, 78-year-old Trump has also faced scrutiny regarding his age and cognitive ability.
When asked if Biden should continue his campaign, 36 percent of respondents said he definitely should not, and 19 percent said he probably should not. Conversely, 25 percent said Biden definitely should continue his campaign, and 15 percent said he probably should.
Regarding Trump, 35 percent of respondents said he definitely should not continue his campaign, and 9 percent said he probably should not. Meanwhile, 41 percent said he definitely should continue, and 9 percent said he probably should.
Biden has refused to drop out of the race, telling supporters at a rally in Madison, Wisconsin, on Friday, “I’m staying in the race, and I will beat Donald Trump.”
In his first one-on-one interview since the debate, Biden told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on Friday that he would only drop out “if God Almighty” tells him to.
When Stephanopoulos asked if he would stand down if convinced he could not beat Trump, Biden replied, “If the Lord Almighty comes down and tells me that, I might do that.”
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